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Prediction for CME (2023-05-11T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-11T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25084/-1
CME Note: Faint CME West in SOHO coronagraph, possibly associated with the 2.1M-class flare from AR 3294 (S07W38) and with the associated eruption with dimming and EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2023-05-11T08:56Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-14T22:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Event id="323" updatenr="0" type="CME_arrival".

From SIDC Ursigram
:Issued: 2023 May 12 1237 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30512
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 May 2023, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 May 2023 until 14 May 2023)
...
On May 11, there were a number of CMEs observed from the west limb. Some of
which were associated with the flaring activity of NOAA AR3294. The first
of which was first seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 09:48 UTC, associated with
the M2.1 flare reported yesterday. The bulk of the CME is directed to the
west but a glancing blow at Earth may be possible from May 14. Another CME
to the west can be seen from 19:00 UTC, likely associated to the M1.9
flare, this appears narrower but any possible Earth directed component
would likely merge with the first CME. 


From SIDC URSIGRAM 30513
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2023, 1236UT

There is a
low probability for further minor enhancements from late on May 14, due to
the CME associated with the M2.1 flare observed on May 11, which may have a
glancing blow at Earth.
Lead Time: 33.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-05-13T12:42Z
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